Essentially every state reduced standards in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. The slight increase and general stability of the graduation rate is likely because states reduced their standards. In short, the total number of high school degrees, summing across the two COVID-19 graduating classes, looks to be very similar to what it likely would have been without the pandemic. Figure 1 shows that the graduation rate increased a bit more than the prior trend would have suggested in the spring of 2020, before returning to a level just above the 2019 graduation rate. We used data from 25 states that reported high school graduation rates (weighted by enrollment). Question 1: How has COVID-19 affected high school graduation rates? The technical report associated with this work, which provides much more detail, is in the process of release in the Russell Sage Foundation Journal in 2023. This theory centers on the key differences between starting, persisting, and completing educational credentials. Fourth, why did college enrollment decline even as high school graduation (temporarily) increased slightly? While this question is more difficult to answer, we present a theory that could explain not only the high school graduation and college entry results, but also other patterns in K-12 enrollment.However, college entry declined most in colleges serving large proportions of people of color. Third, did these trends vary across student subgroups? High school graduation rates actually increased for students with disabilities, English-language learners, and Black students.This decline could signal a reduction in future college credentials. Based on the above results, we know this is not because there were fewer high school graduates who could enter. Second, how has COVID-19 affected the transition from high school to college? We find a 16% decline in immediate transitions to two-year colleges and a 6% decline in transition to four-year colleges.We find evidence that multiple factors were at work, especially the temporary relaxation of standards was likely one contributing factor. Overall, it appears that, of all commonly measured educational outcomes, high school graduation has so far been the least affected. ![]() This pattern is not the result of reporting bias. ![]() First, how has the COVID-19 pandemic affected high school graduation rates? Using data from 25 states, covering 57% of the nation’s school population, our results suggest that high school graduation rates actually increased slightly in the spring of 2020, followed by a return to the prior level in 2021. ![]() To address this gap, we-along with Ann Bernhardt, Rylie Martin, Chris Marsicano, and Paul von Hippel-decided to study COVID-19’s effects on high school graduation and the transition from high school to college. How has the pandemic impacted these outcomes? In particular, high school graduation and college entry are at least as strong as predictors of long-term life success as test scores. This is important, to be sure, but there are other key signals of skill, knowledge, and development. Overwhelming evidence shows that this is happening-with each new study, we see further documentation that students learned considerably less than they would have without COVID-19. Much of the attention on schools during the COVID-19 era has been on learning loss, measured by the drop in student test scores.
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